和谐 4ever!

A few days ago, Yves Smith of naked capitalism responded to some logical leaps of faith that were made in the wake of China's unemployment crisis. One point is well taken. Anger is directed toward local governments, not the central authority. The State Council may be highly political and unaccountable, but most doubt it's corrupt. That's something I cannot say for regional governments.

From a historical perspective, this isn't exactly news. Early Chinese merchants in Southeast Asia had a hard time in China due its immense size. In Southeast Asia, one could speak directly with the local king or chief. In China, one needed to go through the local officials, who invariably needed bribes. The People's Communes also functioned this way. The commune leaders needed to bribe local officials in order to get what they wanted. This has not changed. And no revolution is forthcoming.

Plenty of countries have experienced a good deal of internal dissent. Look at the US in the 60s, with riots, fire bombings, and large scale demonstrations, in a country with no tradition of radical action by the middle class, and a much less highly developed police/surveillance apparatus than we have now. Did anyone think the government here would be overthrown? Perhaps a hopeful few on the radical left, but they'd have little company. Yet that level of violence was still unsettling and did put pressure on the government.

Although China has had violent revolution, it has no organized anti-government movement at present, a very large army, and little tolerance of opposition. The discontent now is directed first against the corporations that shuttered their operations, second against provincial governments (this is more a simmering problem of long-standing corruption that may find a new hook with increasing demands for services, such as they are, driven by the migration back to the countryside).

The level of discontent and disruption in China is significant in two ways: as an indicator of economic conditions (it isn't clear how reliable some of the Chinese economic reports are) and as a fever chart of the pressures on the central government to increase its stimulus efforts (Premier Wen in a Financial Times interview signaled that China was considering additional stimulus measures).

To the sighting du jour: a Chinese official, citing Agricultural Ministry data, pegged the number of rural migrants to coastal factories who are returning home at 20 million. This figure is far higher than any to date (readers may have other sources that are more in line with this tally, but the biggest estimate I have seen so far is 10 million, although Wen fessed up to 12 million yesterday, so the new data is a stunner). And that is only the level of reverse migration. The figure does not include those who remained in cities and are still looking for work.

This would in turn suggest that the falloff of economic activity is as severe as some of the less watched proxies suggest (electrical output, which some contend is a good measure of economic activity, fell 9.6% in November, a dramatic one-month change) and that the government will increase its stimulus efforts sooner rather than later.

Also Quebec cartoonist/graphic novellist Guy Delisle is blogging from Jerusalem. He blogged on Jan. 20 about how MSF (Doctors Without Borders) tried to enter Gaza. FrenchPod recently informed me that comics are referred to as bande dessinée.

Please tell me how this is like, because it's blocked here. Plus it's in French.